As 2012 begins, the final verdict on 2011 growth is taking shape. BMI‘s expectation is that the US economy will sustain some of the momentum that it began to pick up late in 2011, whereas the eurozone and Chinese economies will continue to demonstrate weakness. This is borne out by purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data… [Read more]
Regular readers of this blog will know that my colleagues and I have stated recently that a break-up of the eurozone is a possible outcome of the current crisis. In a special feature published on Business Monitor Online this week, we assess the potential scenarios. Essentially, there are five basic types of break-ups we can… [Read more]
US Fed: No Silver Bullet The US Federal Reserve’s surprise move on November 30 to cut dollar swap line rates is a rare bit of good news, but it may ironically ease some of the pressure from European policymakers to make a deal to save the euro at the December 9 EU summit. While we… [Read more]
An Assessment Of Political Risks There is a widespread belief that the eurozone will survive, because “there’s no way that German Chancellor Angela Merkel, French President Nicolas Sarkozy, and other European leaders will let 60 years of European integration efforts collapse during their watch”. These leaders will take decisive action at the last minute to… [Read more]
Despite the lack of an agreed plan of action out of the weekend meetings of the IMF and G20 Finance Ministers, there are encouraging indications that a more encompassing policy response to the eurozone debt crisis is currently under formulation. Reports suggest that leaders are tending towards a plan consisting of a haircut on Greek… [Read more]
Global markets are once again under pressure as eurozone policymakers continue to duck launching a sufficient policy response to the region’s debt crisis, despite encouragement to do so from US Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner. Another game of chicken between the Greek government and eurozone leaders is currently underway, with a decision over whether to disperse… [Read more]
It is hard to be upbeat towards Western economies right now, with so much bad data coming out of the US, and the eurozone struggling to hold itself together. Indeed, people could be forgiven for thinking that the West is down and out. However, this could be premature. One of the charts that has intrigued… [Read more]