Business Monitor International (BMI) recently published a special feature on the future of the European Central Bank (ECB) and monetary policy in the eurozone. The highlights are as follows: The ECB has grown from 10% of the eurozone economy to more than 30% today. It is bigger than the US Federal Reserve and the Bank… [Read more]
Purchasing managers indices (PMI) released on March 22 paint a downbeat picture for macroeconomic activity in both the eurozone and China. Eurozone flash manufacturing PMI fell for the first time in four months, coming in at 47.7 for March compared with February’s 49.0 reading (any reading above 50.0 signals expansion in manufacturing). Consensus had been… [Read more]
The approval of a second bailout for Greece and a second LTRO auction by the European Central Bank have significantly alleviated meltdown risks for the eurozone periphery and the region’s banks. However, more will need to be accomplished over the next 12-18 months to ensure the long-term survival of the currency bloc. Mark Schaltuper, BMI’s… [Read more]
In this webinar we assess whether the eurozone will muddle through or end in a meltdown scenario, which could see the single currency bloc fall apart. Our Global Economic Strategists and Head of Europe Country Risk discuss why the ongoing crisis is a domestic balance of payment problem, which needs to be resolved by its… [Read more]
Today, we update you on our view of German politics and how we have performed in our recent calls: The ruling CDU/CSU centre-right party of Chancellor Angela Merkel is doing exceptionally well in national approval ratings, exceeding the roughly 34% it garnered in the last legislative election in 2009. A tough stance on Greece, record-low… [Read more]
As 2012 begins, the final verdict on 2011 growth is taking shape. BMI‘s expectation is that the US economy will sustain some of the momentum that it began to pick up late in 2011, whereas the eurozone and Chinese economies will continue to demonstrate weakness. This is borne out by purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data… [Read more]
Regular readers of this blog will know that my colleagues and I have stated recently that a break-up of the eurozone is a possible outcome of the current crisis. In a special feature published on Business Monitor Online this week, we assess the potential scenarios. Essentially, there are five basic types of break-ups we can… [Read more]
