BMI has long-warned that expectations of Chinese yuan (CNY) appreciation are not fundamentally sound, and back in October, my colleagues and I anticipated that the yuan would be re-pegged to the US dollar as the Chinese economy slowed. We now increasingly recognise that a devaluation in the CNY/US$ spot rate could happen in 2012, or… [Read more]
Myanmar (or Burma, as many still call it) has long been an economic laggard in Asia. Over the past few decades, virtually every other Asian state has boomed or emerged on investors’ radars in some way – but not Myanmar. The reason is, of course, Myanmar’s pariah status, economic isolationism, and chronic mismanagement. However, recent… [Read more]
After last month describing its own currency as ‘massively overvalued’, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) has restarted the printing press and implemented an exchange rate target for the franc (which has plummeted 8.5% against the euro this morning). The move validates BMI’s stance that the Swiss franc could no longer be counted upon as a… [Read more]
In line with the view that Business Monitor Online promoted on March 3, euribor futures have traded much lower on the back of European Central Bank (ECB) President Jean-Claude Trichet’s hawkish comments on monetary policy. Most notably, he said that a rate hike in April was possible. Indeed, the June 2012 contract broke key support… [Read more]
It’s only Tuesday and two key things have happened in China already this week. Xi’s Got The Look… The first was Vice President Xi Jinping’s appointment to the post of vice-chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC). This was no surprise, for Xi has long been considered the heir-apparent to succeed Hu Jintao as Communist… [Read more]
The future movements of the Chinese yuan have been one of the most hotly debated issues in the global economy for many years. The initial 2.1% revaluation of July 21, 2005, after a decade at CNY8.28/US$, was almost as eagerly awaited as the release of the first Star Wars prequel, and like the latter, it… [Read more]
Business Monitor’s bullish stance on a host of emerging market (EM) currencies in recent quarters reflects one of our core macroeconomic assumptions, namely that unprecedented quantitative easing and loose fiscal policy measures in the US in 2009 would ultimately foster significant depreciatory forces for the US dollar. While this may not be visible in the… [Read more]
