In line with our long-held expectations of an enduring economic slowdown in India, the recently-released GDP figure showed a sharp downturn in activity – marking the sixth consecutive quarter where headline expansion has decelerated. Real GDP growth came in at 6.9% y-o-y in the second quarter of the current fiscal year (FY2011/12, April-March), down significantly… [Read more]

After eight months of protracted negotiations, Iraq finally appears within reach of forming a new government. Incumbent Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s dogged efforts to retain the premiership have succeeded. His State of Law alliance won 89 seats in Iraq’s March 2010 parliamentary elections, and his premiership prospects were boosted by last-minute support secured from conservative… [Read more]

Looking at recent economic data and leading indicators, such as the Ifo Business Climate Index, I get the impression that the economic recovery of Europe’s largest economy knows no bounds. Indeed, after posting its fastest economic growth rate since re-unification (at 2.2%), my colleagues at Business Monitor International have upgraded their real GDP growth forecast… [Read more]

June’s US trade statistics have shed doubt on the efficacy of President Barack Obama’s National Export Initiative (NEI) which, launched in February, aims to double US exports by 2015. A series of marketing plans, aimed specifically at major emerging markets including India, China and Vietnam in Asia as well as Brazil and South Africa, are… [Read more]

My colleagues in the Global Strategy team at Business Monitor ran this chart last week, highlighting the sharp differential between German export growth to emerging markets and the developed world. Between 1999 and 2008 the proportion of German exports to emerging markets rose almost 10pps to 29.5% (according to IMF data). Over the same period,… [Read more]

Mexico has attracted more M&A activity in 2010 than any other EM economy with the exception of China, knocking the other regional heavyweight Brazil into third place. With the Mexican peso outperforming most other EM FX majors over the past few months, the benchmark IPC equity index continuing to push record highs, and the country’s… [Read more]

The stellar import performance seen in recent months, which tipped the trade account into a US$7.2bn deficit in March, is in line with China’s booming domestic demand story. However, it seems to me like the rise in imports is at least partly a reflection of the Chinese government’s desire to diversify its dollar reserves into… [Read more]