The confirmation of the 1.8% q-o-q annualised real GDP growth estimate for the US in Q1 2011 has put increasing focus on the US economic slowdown in H1 2011, and is forcing a downward reconsideration of the rate hike cycle in 2012. BMI has lowered its 2011 real GDP growth forecast to 2.6% from 2.9%,… [Read more]
With the economic cycle having hit bottom and turning, thanks in no small part to massive fiscal and monetary stimulus, attention is now turning to when that stimulus is likely to be withdrawn. For me, the likelihood is that tighter policy is going to be put off as long as possible by the authorities in… [Read more]
Five years ago, economists and investors were fretting about ‘triple shocks’ hitting the world economy. Lest you have forgotten, these were the US Federal Reserve preparing to raise interest rates after a long period at 1.00%; a sharp slowdown in China; and rising oil prices. Now, I see a possibility that triple shocks will once… [Read more]