The ‘epic crisis’ scenario which we outlined in a recent podcast appears to be in full swing. With much riding on the decisions policymakers make in the very near term, Business Monitor’s Chief Economic Strategist Tim Cooper and Head of Europe Country Risk & Financial Markets Mark Schaltuper believe that the probability of a Greek… [Read more]
Despite signs that a last-minute agreement on raising the US debt ceiling will be reached before today’s deadline, Risk Watchdog remains neutral commodity markets. This is due to the view that other macro headwinds will keep commodity prices in check over H211. In this environment, gold should continue outperforming. Although a short-term rally is possible… [Read more]
Emerging Market (EM) equities are looking good at the moment, there is no doubt about it, and as regular readers of Riskwatchdog will already know, I am particularly bullish towards Polish, Turkish and Abu Dhabi stocks. But now looking elsewhere for the next big thing, I turn my attention to Latin America, identifying Peru as… [Read more]
On the back of the US Federal Reserve’s decision to purchase US$600bn in treasury assets through the second quarter of 2011, we assess the implications for the US economy and global financial markets. Business Monitor’s Head of Country Risk & Financial Markets Justin Patrie speaks with Global Economic Strategist Tim Cooper.
Commodity markets should remain choppy as we head into an important period that could determine short-term direction for the US dollar. There are several potential fundamental triggers for a dollar comeback in the coming days, including the US midterm congressional elections on November 2 and the announcement on November 3 following the Federal Reserve’s meeting…. [Read more]
The US Federal Reserve has declared war on deflation by announcing QE 2.0, taking the ongoing competitive debasement among major central banks to the next level. Not only has this seen the US dollar weaken sharply against FX majors, such as the euro, Japanese yen and the Swiss franc, but perhaps even more notably, the… [Read more]
Data from the second quarter has reinforced our long-held core outlook for a downturn in US growth in H210 and 2011. On this week’s Business Monitor Podcast, BMI’s Head of Country Risk and Financial Markets Justin Patrie and Global Economic Strategist Tim Cooper, revisit their views on the shape of the US recovery and the… [Read more]
