Although Greece is unsurprisingly receiving the lion’s share of investor attention over its fiscal crisis, other southern European countries are also worth watching. BMI has long warned about Italy’s enormous public debt burden – a sentiment echoed on June 17 by ratings agency Moody’s, which placed its Aa1 sovereign rating on review for possible downgrade…. [Read more]

Argentina’s future economic performance is highly dependent on the outcome of the October 23 Presidential election. With an opposition victory looking increasingly unlikely, my colleagues and I do not expect a dramatic about-turn, with President Cristina Fernández set to remain in charge. Although Argentina still has massive economic potential, significant risks exist. Why Is Argentina… [Read more]

Yesterday, S&P affirmed its AAA long-term sovereign credit rating on the US, but revised its outlook on the long-term rating to negative from stable. Full coverage of this is available on Business Monitor Online, but here are my thoughts: This change in outlook, according to their methodology, implies a 33% chance that S&P will actually… [Read more]

Although Colonel Muammar Qadhafi’s position looks increasingly untenable, it’s quite possible that he will not be the next leader to leave office. That misfortune may well befall Japanese Prime Minister Naoto Kan. Admittedly, Kan hasn’t sent fighter jets to bomb Osaka – although Japan’s second-largest urban area is controlled by the opposition. However, Kan’s popularity… [Read more]

Irish Prime Minister Brian Cowen last Friday finally unveiled the date on which the country will hold elections: March 11. BMI expects Cowen’s Fianna Fáil party to suffer a heavy defeat on account of widespread disenchantment over its handling of the Irish economy in the run up to and following the global financial crisis. The… [Read more]

The next nine months could very well determine Egypt’s political trajectory for years to come, as the ongoing power struggle over who will take over from President Hosni Mubarak gathers steam. Given the president’s faltering health, the lack of a clear successor, widespread opposition (both within government and the population at large) to a transfer… [Read more]

In line with my view that Brazil was the most likely country in Latin America to introduce capital controls to stem currency appreciation, Finance Minister Guido Mantega has announced a doubling of the tax on foreign purchases of fixed income securities from 2% to 4% with immediate effect. The move essentially increases the tax first… [Read more]