The last few weeks have marked a low point in French President Nicolas Sarkozy’s time at the Elysee Palace, and the pressure is unlikely to let up any time soon. Although his embattled Labour Minister Eric Woerth was ‘acquitted’ over a tax cover-up by the Finance Ministry on Sunday, accusations that both Woerth and Sarkozy [Read more...]

Source: UK National Archives

In keeping with its promise to deliver an emergency budget within 50 days of coming to office, the UK’s Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition government today unveiled a painful package of fiscal reforms to get public finances back on an even keel. Delivered by Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne before parliament, the budget [Read more...]

The bounce is on in the United States, with real GDP growth forecast to surge to 2.8% in 2010. And yet, the spike in headline growth will not translate into much better job conditions nor re-inflation of prices in the crucial real estate market. On this week’s podcast, Business Monitor Chief Economist Tim Cooper discusses [Read more...]

 

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After a rough 2009, Mexico’s economic fundamentals look set for a breather over the next couple of months, as exports, manufacturing and unemployment levels continue to benefit from unprecedented fiscal stimulus north of the border. If the US Federal Reserve opts to keep the monetary floodgates open for a while longer, this could translate into [Read more...]

We have previously highlighted on Risk Watchdog how the aftermath of the global financial crisis has exposed the structural imbalances in many developed economies, while also singling out those emerging markets which are in a fundamentally sound position to exploit the global economic recovery. Poland and Greece are certainly two prime examples at opposite ends [Read more...]

Sovereign risk roared back on to the agenda this week after Fitch Ratings agency downgraded Greece’s sovereign issuer default rating to ‘BBB+’ on December 9. We discuss the tactical market implications for the eurozone and the strategic risks posed by further downgrades in the region going forward.

 

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One of the things that has been keeping me awake at night lately is Japan’s horrendous government debt burden. This is already more than 170% of GDP and will only keep rising as the budget deficit surges this year and GDP plummets. I forecast government debt reaching 250% of GDP by the end of 2018, [Read more...]