After a rough 2009, Mexico’s economic fundamentals look set for a breather over the next couple of months, as exports, manufacturing and unemployment levels continue to benefit from unprecedented fiscal stimulus north of the border. If the US Federal Reserve opts to keep the monetary floodgates open for a while longer, this could translate into [Read more...]

We have previously highlighted on Risk Watchdog how the aftermath of the global financial crisis has exposed the structural imbalances in many developed economies, while also singling out those emerging markets which are in a fundamentally sound position to exploit the global economic recovery. Poland and Greece are certainly two prime examples at opposite ends [Read more...]

Sovereign risk roared back on to the agenda this week after Fitch Ratings agency downgraded Greece’s sovereign issuer default rating to ‘BBB+’ on December 9. We discuss the tactical market implications for the eurozone and the strategic risks posed by further downgrades in the region going forward.

 

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One of the things that has been keeping me awake at night lately is Japan’s horrendous government debt burden. This is already more than 170% of GDP and will only keep rising as the budget deficit surges this year and GDP plummets. I forecast government debt reaching 250% of GDP by the end of 2018, [Read more...]

Here we are again. Another global economic slowdown, another spike in global risk aversion, another collapse in soy prices, and another Argentine sovereign default. Or at least that’s what the 1-year CDS is pricing in, currently trading at 4,615 basis points. That’s no joke – it now costs US$461,500 to insure US$1mn against an Argentine [Read more...]