When it comes to Sub-Saharan African markets, I favour equities as an asset class. Of course, selectivity is key: I prefer Nigerian, Ghanaian and Zambian stocks. In Nigeria’s case, I think improved investor confidence following the election will drive the market higher as participants reduce the political risk premium and focus on the attractive macroeconomic… [Read more]
Today in Business Monitor Online, and in this week’s Emerging Markets Monitor (EMM) magazine, my colleagues and I outline our latest views of the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) economies. The BRIC countries remain among our top growth picks over the long run, and we forecast real GDP expansion to average in excess of… [Read more]
On this week’s Business Monitor Podcast, Head of Country Risk & Financial Markets Justin Patrie discusses the 2011 macro-market outlook with Global Economic Strategist Tim Cooper. Key issues explored include global equity and FX strategy, developed vs. emerging market performance, the inflation and interest rate outlook and key risks to the ongoing macroeconomic recovery.
In a move that was widely anticipated by the markets, Venezuela officially devalued its currency on January 1 2011, unifying the ‘essential goods’ rate of VEF2.6000/US$ with the ‘non-essential’ VEF4.3000/US$ rate. While the increased supply of dollars in the economy will make it easier to maintain the fixed exchange rate system over the medium term,… [Read more]
As we head into 2011, my colleagues at BMI’s Latin America Rearch Team have outlined four core themes which will shape Latin America’s macro and market outlook for the upcoming year. 1. Monetary Policy – An End To Inflation Targeting? A desire to maintain export competitiveness will continue to slow the pace of policy rate… [Read more]
In line with my view that Brazil was the most likely country in Latin America to introduce capital controls to stem currency appreciation, Finance Minister Guido Mantega has announced a doubling of the tax on foreign purchases of fixed income securities from 2% to 4% with immediate effect. The move essentially increases the tax first… [Read more]
On this week’s Business Monitor Podcast we assess the outlook for global treasury markets. 2010 has thus far been a gangbusters year for treasuries and the implications for interest rate and inflation expectations has heavily reinforced our core macroeconomic outlook for a major downturn in global demand growth. Key questions addressed in the podcast include:… [Read more]
