Late and insufficient rains in parts of Southern Africa at the end of 2011 have raised concerns that the region could face a period of drought, lean harvests and food shortages after several years of bumper crops. Although we do not believe that a crisis is imminent, we assess the risks posed by poor rains… [Read more]
There will be two important growth drivers for this: Biofuels and livestock. As alternative energies become more popular, corn (which is used to create bio-ethanol in the US and some other countries) production will require increases, particularly since some governments (notably South Africa) have already implemented plans for increased bio-fuel content in gasoline. Another important… [Read more]
Over the past several weeks we have heard about the gloomy outlook for consumer demand in developed markets. Household deleveraging in the US and the growing debt crisis in peripheral eurozone states suggest that a return to robust demand levels will be hard to come by. In this context, we examine the outlook for the… [Read more]
Among various sectors my colleagues and I look at, I think a strong argument could be made for Turkey’s mass grocery retail (MGR) industry to be considered as emerging Europe’s most promising over the long term, ahead of Poland and possibly Russia too. Looking at its long-term economic outlook (GDP per capita is expected to… [Read more]
The health of the world economy has picked up considerably in 2010 with BMI forecasting global GDP growth of 3.2% (driven largely by emerging markets). However, rather than force through positive consumer spending momentum, I see 2010 proving to be another difficult year, with developed market consumer confidence remaining weak. At the real economy level,… [Read more]
