Looking at recent economic data and leading indicators, such as the Ifo Business Climate Index, I get the impression that the economic recovery of Europe’s largest economy knows no bounds. Indeed, after posting its fastest economic growth rate since re-unification (at 2.2%), my colleagues at Business Monitor International have upgraded their real GDP growth forecast [Read more...]

The last few weeks have marked a low point in French President Nicolas Sarkozy’s time at the Elysee Palace, and the pressure is unlikely to let up any time soon. Although his embattled Labour Minister Eric Woerth was ‘acquitted’ over a tax cover-up by the Finance Ministry on Sunday, accusations that both Woerth and Sarkozy [Read more...]

We are now seeing the first major effects of the ratification of the Lisbon Treaty. National governments have finally decided on the appointments for the new roles of president of the European Council and High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy. Both are going to be filled by politicians, who, to put it charitably, [Read more...]

BMI’s Justin Patrie cautions against premature excitement following the release of Q2 GDP data for several CEE and eurozone economies. Nevertheless, differentiation will remain key and the usual suspects (i.e. Turkey and Poland) continue to stand out as the ideal relative value play.

 

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‘A tale of two Europes’ seems to be the best way to describe the slew of Q2 GDP releases that came out in the second week of August. On the upside, Germany and France, the two largest eurozone economies, surprised most analysts by surging out of recession and posting 0.3% q-o-q growth. This helped to [Read more...]

Britain’s population is projected to be the biggest in the European Union by 2060, according to a new report by Eurostat published on August 26. The UK’s population will rise by 25% from 61.3mn to 76.7mn, while Germany’s will shrink from 82.2mn to 70.8mn. France’s population will also overtake Germany’s, rising from 61.9mn to 71.8mn. [Read more...]