In Business Monitor Online today, we discuss two important weekend events. It was an unlucky Friday the 13th for France, which lost its AAA credit rating from Standard and Poor’s. Among other things, the downgrade is likely to be prompt a reassessment by investors and the electorate of the Franco-German relationship in ongoing eurozone rescue… [Read more]

My concerns about a sharp slowdown in economic activity in the eurozone are rising following the release of disappointing Q2 2011 real GDP growth figures for Germany on August 16. Following hot on the heels of flat French Q2 GDP data on August 12, Germany’s economy posted just 0.1% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) growth (seasonally adjusted) in… [Read more]

Allegations of sexual assault and attempted rape have dealt an all but fatal blow to IMF Chief Dominique Strauss-Kahn’s chances of running in next year’s French presidential election. While these developments leave the race wide open, incumbent French President Nicolas Sarkozy’s capacity to secure a second term in the Elysee Palace undoubtedly appears stronger as… [Read more]

Flash estimates for Q1 2011 growth in the eurozone’s core states released on Friday reaffirm our above-consensus outlook for the bloc, and should help underpin euro strength versus the dollar in the months ahead. France posted its best quarterly growth performance since 2006, while Germany’s growth was the best since reunification (at 5.2% y-o-y), both… [Read more]

Looking at recent economic data and leading indicators, such as the Ifo Business Climate Index, I get the impression that the economic recovery of Europe’s largest economy knows no bounds. Indeed, after posting its fastest economic growth rate since re-unification (at 2.2%), my colleagues at Business Monitor International have upgraded their real GDP growth forecast… [Read more]

The last few weeks have marked a low point in French President Nicolas Sarkozy’s time at the Elysee Palace, and the pressure is unlikely to let up any time soon. Although his embattled Labour Minister Eric Woerth was ‘acquitted’ over a tax cover-up by the Finance Ministry on Sunday, accusations that both Woerth and Sarkozy… [Read more]

We are now seeing the first major effects of the ratification of the Lisbon Treaty. National governments have finally decided on the appointments for the new roles of president of the European Council and High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy. Both are going to be filled by politicians, who, to put it charitably,… [Read more]