When it comes to Sub-Saharan African markets, I favour equities as an asset class. Of course, selectivity is key: I prefer Nigerian, Ghanaian and Zambian stocks. In Nigeria’s case, I think improved investor confidence following the election will drive the market higher as participants reduce the political risk premium and focus on the attractive macroeconomic… [Read more]
My colleagues and I continue to see further medium-term weakness for the US dollar and, in this respect, favour emerging market (EM) currencies. Our top picks in our key market views are the Chilean peso (CLP) and the Singapore dollar (SGD). Our other EM favourites include the Mexican peso (MXN), Brazilian real (BRL) and South… [Read more]
The decision by the Banco Central do Brasil (BCB) to hike the benchmark Selic rate by 50 basis points (bps) to 11.25% at its January meeting alters my 2011 interest rate forecasts but does not shift my outlook for monetary policy, namely that Brazil’s monetary authorities will continue to view rate hikes as something of… [Read more]
On this week’s Business Monitor Podcast, Head of Country Risk & Financial Markets Justin Patrie discusses the 2011 macro-market outlook with Global Economic Strategist Tim Cooper. Key issues explored include global equity and FX strategy, developed vs. emerging market performance, the inflation and interest rate outlook and key risks to the ongoing macroeconomic recovery.
Massive capital inflows across South America raise the spectre that authorities throughout the region are about to impose capital controls. Support for exporters appears to be the main reason for such intervention, but fears over a rapid withdrawal of ‘hot money’ in the event of another ‘double-dip’ also appear to be a factor. Risk Watchdog… [Read more]
On Friday, August 6, Business Monitor International’s Head of Research Terry Alexander guest hosted Closing Bell Europe. Key points of discussion included the latest Eurozone GDP releases and asset class strategies amid a rallying bond market.
The technicals and fundamentals are starting to align for a major correction in global markets. Terry Alexander, Head of Global Research at Business Monitor, joins Mark Schaltuper to discuss some of the key views on the markets.
