I have been talking about the possibility of an Israeli incursion into Gaza on Business Monitor Online for about a year now, and one of the possibilities I have flagged up was that of Egyptian troops manning a new, de-Hamasified Gaza Strip, to allow Fatah to regain and consolidate control. As I said at the time, this could potentially be deeply unpopular with Egyptians. If it works, it creates a nice, pacified neighbour and is a blow to the local Muslim Brotherhood (MB) opposition. If it doesn’t, then it increases public resentment of the pro-Israeli policies of the government, and re-radicalises the population and bolsters the MB. The same goes for Egypt’s tacit support for the Israeli campaign that is happening in Gaza at the moment.

Regardless of whether it manages to disempower Hamas or not, Israel’s new year war on Gaza will bring the Muslim Brotherhood back to the fore in Egypt, in spite of extensive arrests and crackdowns. The MB called on all Egyptians to demonstrate last Friday against the continuation of the Israeli offensive on Gaza. Officially reported numbers don’t sound very much (1,500 in Tanta, 5,000 in Alexandria, among others). But anecdotal evidence suggests something different: ‘In Cairo, several thousand Egyptians marched through downtown Cairo on December 31, chanting phrases such as, “Off to Gaza we go, martyrs by the million”, “Where is the Egyptian army?”, and “Shame on you Mubarak”’, reports Salma Elwardany for Menassat.

In my view, you can bet that if ‘up to 200,000 people’ are prepared to march in London on the coldest day of the year, then the opposition in Egypt will be even stronger. As the economy slows, how damaging could this be to the government?

Probably not as damaging as the Iranians would like it to be. Highlights from the reaction in Tehran include “Somebody hang this guy” – the message above the photo of Egypt’s President Hosni Mubarak carried by one angry Iranian protester - and a million dollar reward for the assassination of the ‘filthy traitor’ (although, of course, this is not official Iranian policy).

I know, this is Iran. They have a street named after the assassin who killed Egypt’s last president, Anwar Sadat. I’m not saying they speak for the Egyptians, or that the Egyptian president is on the verge of being assassinated or overthrown. But I do think there is lot of anger out there, and, more than ever, Egypt is right up there with the US and Israel as the target. Egyptians believe that their government supports the Israeli campaign against Hamas, and that it could open the Rafah border if it wanted to. If this story circulates further, then they will also believe that the government is allowing Israel to use Egyptian airspace, leading to Egyptian casualties, for the assault on Gaza.