In Business Monitor Online today, we outline key risks in two economies. In the case of Croatia, we retain our view that the government will seek IMF backing of some sort this year, which will help avert a full-blown crisis in the economy. This is predicated on the increasingly difficult conditions for Croatian financial markets… [Read more]

Business Monitor Online has recently published two new analyses on North East Asia. China: With the economy heading towards a ‘hard landing’, we believe it will become increasingly difficult for the central government to report strong growth figures. While the headline GDP figure is as much a political issue as an economic one, a greater… [Read more]

In line with our long-held expectations of an enduring economic slowdown in India, the recently-released GDP figure showed a sharp downturn in activity – marking the sixth consecutive quarter where headline expansion has decelerated. Real GDP growth came in at 6.9% y-o-y in the second quarter of the current fiscal year (FY2011/12, April-March), down significantly… [Read more]

The Q211 GDP data released recently by Statistics South Africa has confirmed many of my suspicions about the state of the South African economy. The recovery is losing momentum and moreover, it is uneven with the supply side in the doldrums while the demand side continues to post robust growth. The economy as a whole… [Read more]

My concerns about a sharp slowdown in economic activity in the eurozone are rising following the release of disappointing Q2 2011 real GDP growth figures for Germany on August 16. Following hot on the heels of flat French Q2 GDP data on August 12, Germany’s economy posted just 0.1% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) growth (seasonally adjusted) in… [Read more]

The release of second quarter (Q2) 2011 GDP data and revisions to the GDP series going back several years have had a significant impact on the US economic outlook. Taken in tandem with higher-frequency data that suggest waning economic activity, BMI has revised down its US real GDP growth forecasts to 1.7% in 2011 (from… [Read more]

My colleagues and I have revised up our 2011 real GDP growth forecast for China following the release of higher-than-expected expansion figures of 9.7% y-o-y in Q2 2011. We now see full-year growth coming in at 9.2% (up from 8.9% previously), before falling back to 8.1% in 2012, which means that we are still below… [Read more]