Brazil’s Q409 real GDP reading came in roughly in line with market expectations, posting a growth rate of 2.0% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) seasonally adjusted – its highest reading in two years. Expectations of a robust headline number for Q4 have previously sent the interbank deposit (DI) futures market higher, amid expectations that the Banco Central do [Read more...]

On November 12, Business Monitor International hosted a major investors’ conference on the risks, opportunities and outlook for emerging markets over the coming decade. Justin Patrie talks with senior BMI strategists Terry Alexander and Tim Cooper about some of the themes and surprises that emerged from the conference. Highlighted topics include EM outperformance, structural drivers [Read more...]

 

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Few countries have been as badly hit by the global downturn as Latvia.

According to a flash estimate released by the statistical office, the Latvian economy plunged by 18.4% y-o-y during the third quarter, which although below the consensus contraction of 19-20%, was nonetheless a horrific rate of decline. Indeed, this would mark [Read more...]

With Halloween around the corner, we ask BMI’s Global Economic Strategist, Tim Cooper, if the latest Q3 GDP reading in the US is a ‘Trick’ or a ‘Treat’. For now, markets appear to be thinking the latter.

 

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The release of Q3 real GDP data in China reaffirms Business Monitor’s view that the Chinese economy is already in the midst of a very strong recovery. However, Stuart Allsopp from BMI’s Asia team cautions that this does not constitute an end to the country’s economic woes and highlights that deep structural imbalances persist.

 

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With the US economy emerging out of recession, a big question will be what happens to the labour market. The US continues to record job losses every month, despite signs that real GDP is returning to positive growth, and while unemployment tends to be a lagging indicator, BMI’s Tim Cooper notes that underlying structural shifts [Read more...]

 

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‘Change’ is a powerful message. Barack Obama made this his main slogan in his 2008 campaign. Rocky Balboa proclaimed this to the Soviet Politburo at the end of Rocky IV. UK girl band Sugababes called their fifth album Change. Now, even Japan has opted for change, after 54 years of rule by the Liberal Democratic [Read more...]