The release of second quarter (Q2) 2011 GDP data and revisions to the GDP series going back several years have had a significant impact on the US economic outlook. Taken in tandem with higher-frequency data that suggest waning economic activity, BMI has revised down its US real GDP growth forecasts to 1.7% in 2011 (from… [Read more]

My colleagues and I have revised up our 2011 real GDP growth forecast for China following the release of higher-than-expected expansion figures of 9.7% y-o-y in Q2 2011. We now see full-year growth coming in at 9.2% (up from 8.9% previously), before falling back to 8.1% in 2012, which means that we are still below… [Read more]

The coming days and weeks will see macroeconomic and corporate data that has the potential to determine the path of global financial markets through the second half of 2011. On the macroeconomic front, upcoming data releases in the US will reveal whether the slowing of economic growth observed since the beginning of the year is… [Read more]

The confirmation of the 1.8% q-o-q annualised real GDP growth estimate for the US in Q1 2011 has put increasing focus on the US economic slowdown in H1 2011, and is forcing a downward reconsideration of the rate hike cycle in 2012. BMI has lowered its 2011 real GDP growth forecast to 2.6% from 2.9%,… [Read more]

US macroeconomic data in the past fortnight have been decidedly weak. The Philly Fed index came in much weaker than expected, while the Conference Board’s leading indicators index dropped for the first time in 10 months in April. Housing starts and initial jobless claims reports have also been poor, following a weak Q1 2011 real… [Read more]

Flash estimates for Q1 2011 growth in the eurozone’s core states released on Friday reaffirm our above-consensus outlook for the bloc, and should help underpin euro strength versus the dollar in the months ahead. France posted its best quarterly growth performance since 2006, while Germany’s growth was the best since reunification (at 5.2% y-o-y), both… [Read more]

China’s 2010 real GDP growth figure came in at 10.3%, slightly exceeding BMI’s revised forecast of 10.2%. With no breakdown of the data available as of yet, I can only conclude that growth momentum ended 2010 on a stronger note than expected (by ourselves and the market). Data on retail sales, which rose by 19.1%… [Read more]