We are now seeing the first major effects of the ratification of the Lisbon Treaty. National governments have finally decided on the appointments for the new roles of president of the European Council and High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy. Both are going to be filled by politicians, who, to put it charitably, [Read more...]

The Fall of the Berlin Wall and the end of Communism in Europe was probably inevitable, given the inability of the Communist system to compete economically with the West. We now hear that communism was ‘unsustainable’ and I largely agree, but at the same time I don’t think it was inevitable that the Berlin Wall [Read more...]

With the centre-right taking control in Germany and polls suggesting the same for the UK in 2010, we ask David Snowdon, Global Economic Strategist at BMI, to examine the potential policy repercussions for Western Europe and beyond. While the centre-left has lost ground electorally, David suggests that this may not necessarily herald a major ideological [Read more...]

 

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Germany’s general elections on Sunday produced a victory for the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), which now looks set to form a coalition with the centre-right Free Democrats (FDP). The two parties would have a parliamentary majority of 42. This will bring to an end four years of the ‘Grand Coalition’ between the CDU and the [Read more...]

BMI’s Justin Patrie cautions against premature excitement following the release of Q2 GDP data for several CEE and eurozone economies. Nevertheless, differentiation will remain key and the usual suspects (i.e. Turkey and Poland) continue to stand out as the ideal relative value play.

 

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‘A tale of two Europes’ seems to be the best way to describe the slew of Q2 GDP releases that came out in the second week of August. On the upside, Germany and France, the two largest eurozone economies, surprised most analysts by surging out of recession and posting 0.3% q-o-q growth. This helped to [Read more...]

Yesterday brought an interesting series of elections in the German speaking world, with both Austria and Bavaria going to the polls. The results were rather as expected, but both elections point to the increasing difficulty of forming governments with viable parliamentary majorities.

Starting in Austria, the era of five-party politics is firmly upon us, with the [Read more...]