Every time a British prime minister meets their new American counterpart for the first time (and vice versa), there is a flurry of commentary in the UK media asking whether the ‘special relationship’ between the two countries is secure. With Gordon Brown meeting Barack Obama in Washington today, all eyes will be on the rapport between the two.

The close US-UK relationship has had its ups and its downs over the past generation. The Thatcher-Reagan era was a high point, with the two seeing eye to eye over domestic economic ideology and their stance against the Soviet Union.

By contrast, the Major-Clinton era saw strains over Bosnia, Northern Ireland, and Clinton’s belief that Major had supported George H.W. Bush in the 1992 election. The Blair-Clinton era was much warmer, due to the two leaders’ common centrist ideology, and global outlook. Blair then surprised everyone by becoming even closer to George W. Bush, with whom he had very little in common (apart from Colgate toothpaste), with the two united over Afghanistan and Iraq.

Cynics point out that there is no US-UK ‘special relationship’, that the phrase is barely uttered in the US, and when it is, it is mostly out of politeness. They also point out that the relationship is grossly one-sided in the US’ favour, with the Blair-Bush era representing a new nadir in British subservience to America in terms of foreign policy.

At first glance, there are indeed several factors that suggest a special relationship:

• The US is a country that is mainly populated by people whose ancestors came from the British Isles, and those from Germany, Italy and elsewhere were quickly assimilated into an English-speaking culture, thus ensuring a common language with the UK.

• The US is Britain’s biggest single-country trade partner, and the two share a similar ‘Anglo-Saxon’ economic model.

• The US and UK have a very close, but less highly-publicised intelligence-sharing relationship, as well as a strong defence partnership.

However, I should also point out that there are several factors that suggest that the relationship is overstated:

• The US has special relationships with several other countries, including Israel, Japan, Saudi Arabia, and South Korea.

• As recently as the 1920s, the US had contingency plans for a naval war with Britain, and in the 1950s the US actively undermined the British Empire (e.g. the Suez Crisis, 1956).

• Language alone is an insufficient bond. Many Americans tell me of the culture shock they felt when first visiting Britain, despite the common language.

• Most Britons are far more familiar with Europe than the US.

• The US is a far more religious and visibly patriotic society than the UK, and these factors result in a significantly different domestic political discourse.

• The US reportedly even spied on Tony Blair when he was prime minister!

• In the world of entertainment, it is very difficult for UK pop stars or films to achieve commercial success in the US, but the reverse is not true.

• As the US becomes more Hispanic and Asian, its citizens will probably feel less of a kinship with the British Isles.

Going forward, I think the last point is particularly relevant. Barack Obama is the US’ first non-Anglo-Saxon president, and far less familiar with the UK than the Bushes and Clinton, all of whom were Anglophiles. Of course, realism will ensure Obama stays friendly to the UK, but it would hardly be surprising if he affords more attention to Asia, Latin America, and Africa at the expense of Europe, including Britain.