Commodity prices have dramatically fallen out of their multi-year uptrends in recent months, as the global macroeconomic environment has deteriorated and risk aversion swept through markets. This week, Edward Coughlan, BMI’s Head of Mining Analysis is joined by John Davies, Head of Commodities Analysis, to discuss the outlook for commodity prices in 2012.
Much has been made over the potential impact of recent events in Japan on international rice markets. Given the importance of rice as a staple in Asia and increasing concern over food price inflation in emerging markets, this is of particular relevance. Japan, normally self-sufficient in rice, has seen swathes of coastal farmland devastated by… [Read more]
Commodity markets have bounced further since last week as some of the oversold momentum has continued to unwind. Moreover, equity markets bouncing and the US dollar is weakening against the euro, both of which will be positive commodities on a short-term basis. While my colleagues at Business Monitor see potential for a short-term bounce, and… [Read more]
Inflationary pressures are of rising concern across both emerging (EM) and developed (DM) markets and are set to remain a key theme in 2011. While a robust economic recovery (in EM) and loose monetary policy (across the board) have been the primary drivers of this phenomenon, rising commodity prices have also played an important role… [Read more]
Grain prices broke higher in recent trading led by wheat and the short-term outlook looks positive. Gains followed Vladimir Putin’s announcement that Russia will extend its ban on grain exports until late 2011. However, this development does not fundamentally alter my key views regarding the complex, namely: The short-term outlook for grains is fairly bullish… [Read more]
Although everyone is talking about inflation right now, when we look at developed markets, we see reason to believe that 2009 in fact heralds a period of deflation. After all, when you strip out oil and food prices, there is not much inflation around. For example, core inflation in the US has remained steady at… [Read more]
