I am modestly bullish grains in 2011, although I do not foresee gains to the extent seen in 2010. The S&PGS grains index rallied roughly 50% over H210 following a slew of disappointing harvests in the northern hemisphere. In particular, downgrades to Russian wheat and US corn production were the key drivers over recent months…. [Read more]
After slumping by 12% in 2009, the largest contraction of the post-war period, global trade volumes have steadily rebounded in the first half of 2010. Yet, just as the global economic downturn laid bare the inherent chinks in the armour in the world’s financial system, the upturn is exposing a fundamental weakness in another vital… [Read more]
The global commodity complex rallied for the most of March, but I question whether this move can turn into a sustained bounce. Indeed, I believe that the rally came on the back of a confluence of short-term factors. However, over the medium term, fundamentals still point towards further weakness for commodities. Given the magnitude of… [Read more]