After a volatile year and a seemingly robust start to 2012, Mark Schaltuper, Head of Europe Country Risk & Financial Markets, asked Business Monitor’s Commodities team what the outlook for commodities is for the remainder of the year. John Davies, Ed Coughlan and Ophelie Buchet share their views on the upside potential for the commodity… [Read more]
Business Monitor Online has recently published two new analyses on North East Asia. China: With the economy heading towards a ‘hard landing’, we believe it will become increasingly difficult for the central government to report strong growth figures. While the headline GDP figure is as much a political issue as an economic one, a greater… [Read more]
Business Monitor International (BMI)’s Politburo Standing Committee sat down yesterday to discuss our thoughts on China in 2012. Below is a brief summary of what we talked about. These notes were prepared for internal circulation, but given the importance of China, and the fact that our regular readers are probably already familiar with our views,… [Read more]
China’s economic growth story has rapidly turned from one underpinned by productivity gains to one engineered by inflationary policies, and the quality of growth has suffered considerably as a result. Several years of poor capital allocation will have to be unwound eventually, and with the global economy stuttering in the second half of 2011, Rahul… [Read more]
My colleagues and I have revised up our 2011 real GDP growth forecast for China following the release of higher-than-expected expansion figures of 9.7% y-o-y in Q2 2011. We now see full-year growth coming in at 9.2% (up from 8.9% previously), before falling back to 8.1% in 2012, which means that we are still below… [Read more]
The risks to the global economy are mounting, following the earthquake and tsunami in Japan in March and the spike in oil prices on the back of the political crises in the Middle East and North Africa. BMI’s core global economic scenario is for steady growth for the remainder of the year and into 2012,… [Read more]
Mark Schaltuper, Head of Europe analysis at Business Monitor International, is joined by Justin Patrie, Head of Country Risk and Financial Markets, and Jean-Paul Pigat, Head of Middle East and North Africa analysis, to identify some of the key sources of risk to the global economy.
