On this week’s podcast, we return to the issue of the Spanish economy and specifically, the state of the housing market. BMI’s Head of Country Risk & Financial Markets Justin Patrie talks with Europe Analyst Chris Graham on the outlook for Spanish real estate and what it means for growth, the markets and the stability… [Read more]
A shock fall in UK house prices during September has sharpened concerns over the ailing property market. According to data from Halifax, house prices plunged 3.6% m-o-m, marking the largest fall on record (since 1983). While certainly a woeful figure, we do not believe that this necessarily portends a looming collapse in prices. The quarterly… [Read more]
Dear Diary, I went to the World Commodities Week conference yesterday, which focused on China. There were some important points to take away: Growth The survival of the leadership in China is based on delivering growth. As such, while China will slow in 2011 (though not below 7%), it will likely rebound in 2012 before… [Read more]
New property market cooling measures announced by China’s State Council on April 15 seek to curb speculative demand for real estate by raising down payment requirements and mortgage rates, while giving local government officials the responsibility for failing to stabilise property prices. If the measures work, which I think they might, then property prices in… [Read more]
With the US housing and stock markets being decimated, household net worth is, to put it delicately, getting obliterated. According to the Federal Reserve’s quarterly (and must-read for economics wonks) Flow of Funds report, household and nonprofit net worth, which includes real estate and financial assets net of liabilities (mostly mortgages), fell by US$11.2trn in… [Read more]
Economic theory of market failure and externalities put aside, Risk Watchdog has always had difficulties in coming to terms with the idea of government intervention in the market. In many cases it is difficult to come up with a valid counterfactual that proves that the market would have been better off without the ‘helping hand’… [Read more]
