Earlier this week, Germany’s Bild newspaper reported that Kazakhstan’s 71-year old president, Nursultan Nazarbayev, had undergone prostate surgery in Hamburg. Given that Nazarbayev has dominated Kazakhstan since the late Soviet era and given the country’s importance to Eurasian energy and geopolitical calculations, any sign that he is ill will certainly increase the country’s risk profile,… [Read more]
Given that President Hugo Chávez’s Partido Socialista Unido de Venezuela (PSUV) lost its two-thirds majority in the September 26 legislative elections, it is pretty likely that the ruling party is going to face a tougher time in passing some of the more radical elements of its socialist reforms. In addition, the 2012 presidential vote is… [Read more]
Against an increasingly challenging global economic backdrop, Richard Hamilton, Head of Latin America analysis at Business Monitor International, outlines three core themes for the region. Having been among the first regions to emerge from the global economic downturn in 2009, we take a look at the likely impact of a double-dip in China and an… [Read more]
The decision taken by President Hugo Chávez’s administration to suspend trading in Venezuela’s black market ‘parallel’ rate marks a step closer to Zimbabwe-style hyperinflation and domestic economic ruin. To-date the government has avoided paying the cost of its rampant spending spree and erosion of productive capacity thanks to robust global oil prices, but even without… [Read more]
Risk Watchdog’s long-held view that the bolivar would sooner or later have to be devalued has finally materialised, with President Hugo Chávez on January 8 announcing the introduction of a dual exchange rate system. Bolivars will now officially be exchanged for dollars at two rates, VEF2.6000/US$ and VEF4.3000/US$, as opposed to the VEF2.1500/US$ peg that… [Read more]
The popularity and influence of Brazil’s president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, knows no bounds. As Lula enters his final year in office, his popularity continues to hover near record highs. Interestingly, as his ruling Partido dos Trabalhadores gears up for next year’s election (in which his chief of staff Dilma Rousseff is Lula’s hand-picked… [Read more]
Cautious appears to be the best way to describe sentiment among Mexico City’s executives and bureaucrats at present, or at least that was the feeling Risk Watchdog came away with after spending a week on the ground there. This is not surprising, given the severity of the blow to Mexico’s economy from the recent downturn…. [Read more]
