As many readers will have observed over the past few weeks, Hungary has become the focus of attention in Central & Eastern Europe (CEE), and for all the wrong reasons. The country finds itself caught in a financial storm equivalent in magnitude to that witnessed in late 2008, with the forint trading close to its… [Read more]
A recent trip to Cairo has confirmed many of Business Monitor’s core views on the short and long-term outlook for the Egyptian economy. Key concerns for many investors include the upcoming parliamentary elections, recurring strike activity, in addition to the security situation throughout the country. This week Mark Schaltuper, Head of Europe Country Risk &… [Read more]
On November 21, the Irish government formally requested financial support from the European Union, taking the first step in accessing the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF). The move was largely expected, with visits to Dublin from EU, ECB and IMF officials earlier in the month signaling to markets to price in a bail-out (see Business… [Read more]
The outlook for the eurozone is looking steadily worse. Key European economies have thus far failed to capitalise on the bounce in headline growth seen in the US and emerging markets. Concomitantly, a brewing sovereign crisis in Greece has highlighted serious problems of overleverage in Portugal, Spain and Italy. On this week’s podcast, Business Monitor… [Read more]
Brazil has just hosted the second annual BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China) summit on April 15-16, but I think there are good reasons to doubt how much strength this grouping actually has in terms of changing the world – at least in a collective fashion. Below, I list some thoughts about BRICs as a concept:… [Read more]
Political risk is a perennial concern for foreign investors in Turkey, and a frequent cause of volatility on the Istanbul markets. Yet despite threats of military coups, an on-again off-again EU accession process, deep social tensions between secularist and moderate Islamist institutions, and a protracted ethnic Kurdish insurgency, the Turkish economy and financial markets have… [Read more]
The fixed income investment community has been shaken up by growing concerns over Greece’s creditworthiness, which appear to be spreading like a bush fire across eurozone peripheral states. While concerns over significant sovereign credit risk are currently limited to the euro area and Dubai, my colleagues at BMI believe that Latin American government credit, too,… [Read more]
