BMI‘s Asia Research Team has identified two currencies – the Singapore dollar and Indonesian rupiah – which it believes will outperform others in the region. Essentially, we prefer currencies with robust current account dynamics and clear indications by the central banks that currency strength is preferred to curb rising consumer price inflation. The SGD and… [Read more]
I am pencilling in a correction in Crude Palm Oil (CPO) prices over the coming months, before a resumption of the long-term uptrend. The spectacular rally in CPO prices since mid-2010 has been underpinned by several dynamics. First and foremost, the rally in grain prices since the middle of last year has driven gains. Given… [Read more]
Political and economic upheaval is a regular occurrence around the world, but what makes the recent unrest in Egypt so worthy of attention is the country’s overwhelming geopolitical importance in the world. Quite simply, my colleagues and I view Egypt as a ‘pivotal state’. There is no official definition of the term ‘pivotal state’ (although… [Read more]
Having surpassed the US$1trn mark, we take a look at Islamic banking and its outlook over the next couple of years. Liz Martins, Head of Middle East and North Africa analysis at Business Monitor International, discusses some opportunities and threats of an industry that is expected to double in size over the coming five years.
The health of the world economy has picked up considerably in 2010 with BMI forecasting global GDP growth of 3.2% (driven largely by emerging markets). However, rather than force through positive consumer spending momentum, I see 2010 proving to be another difficult year, with developed market consumer confidence remaining weak. At the real economy level,… [Read more]
Following the re-election of President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono on Wednesday, arguably the biggest question is whether Indonesia can join the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China) league and make the group ‘BRIIC’. Goldman Sachs identified Indonesia as one of the ‘Next 11’ big emerging markets in 2005, and Morgan Stanley recently suggested that Indonesia should be… [Read more]
