Brazil’s Q409 real GDP reading came in roughly in line with market expectations, posting a growth rate of 2.0% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) seasonally adjusted – its highest reading in two years. Expectations of a robust headline number for Q4 have previously sent the interbank deposit (DI) futures market higher, amid expectations that the Banco Central do [Read more...]

This week the People’s Bank of China tried to send a clear signal that it is starting to tighten monetary conditions as the economic recovery takes hold. Stuart Allsopp, BMI China analyst, explains the significance of the bank’s  move to raise its 3-month bill financing rate and reserve requirement ratios for the monetary policy outlook [Read more...]

 

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This morning’s global equity market sell-off could have had something to do with the People’s Bank of China (PBOC)’s decision to raise the reserve requirement ratio from 15.5% to 16.0% for large domestic banks and from 13.5% to 14.0% for small banks from January 18. This followed two hikes in central bank bill rates, and [Read more...]

On this week’s podcast, we interview Business Monitor Chief Economist Tim Cooper, who gives his analysis on the global outlook for 2010. Highlighted themes include relative performance of emerging markets versus developed economies, the inflation outlook, potential for ‘double dips’ in the US and China, asset allocation strategies and the risks to recovery.

 

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As we enter the fourth quarter, Terry Alexander returns with an outlook on near-term market dynamics, and why we are not yet ready to change our long-held bullish view. Stuart Allsopp joins this podcast to give a little more fundamental insight into what is driving the rally in Gold.

 

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With the economic cycle having hit bottom and turning, thanks in no small part to massive fiscal and monetary stimulus, attention is now turning to when that stimulus is likely to be withdrawn. For me, the likelihood is that tighter policy is going to be put off as long as possible by the authorities in [Read more...]

Precious metals across the board have performed well in 2009, but I note that gold and silver have underperformed relative to platinum and especially palladium. As illustrated by the chart, palladium has outperformed, up 49% since January, followed by platinum (up by 30%), silver (up 23%) and gold (up 8%). This relative performance, I believe, [Read more...]