Towards the end of 2010 our global team identified nine key global themes for 2011, ranging from an intensification of the eurozone debt crisis to ‘all eyes on China’. With 2011 now coming to a close, Mark Schaltuper, BMI’s Head of Europe Country Risk is joined by Global Economic Strategist Tim Cooper to see how… [Read more]
Despite signs that a last-minute agreement on raising the US debt ceiling will be reached before today’s deadline, Risk Watchdog remains neutral commodity markets. This is due to the view that other macro headwinds will keep commodity prices in check over H211. In this environment, gold should continue outperforming. Although a short-term rally is possible… [Read more]
For all of those out there who have recognised that high inflation is so 2008, and with the risk of deflationary pressures mounting believe that no credible central bank – even in emerging markets – will consider raising interest rates, there may be an early Christmas treat. By that I don’t mean appealing high street… [Read more]
Is China entering a time of troubles? Yesterday’s 0.27% interest rate cut – the first in six years – and today’s 4.5% fall in the Shanghai Composite Index to a 20-month low of 1,987 may suggest so. The stock market is now down 68% from its peak in October 2007, and I do not preclude… [Read more]
Risk watchdog’s call of a 25bps hike in Mexico’s benchmark interest rate to 8.00% on July 18, based on poor inflation data and rising price expectations, proved correct, and supports the long-held bullish stance towards the Mexican peso. The hawkish decision by Banxico helped the peso break five-year highs of MXN10.22/US$, pushing on towards my… [Read more]
