President-elect Dilma Rousseff has kicked off her cabinet appointments by announcing key figures in the economic team, reinforcing my view that the new administration will focus on continuing the economic policy mix started by the outgoing Lula government. Finance Minister Guido Mantega will remain in his post, while hawkish central bank president Henrique Meirelles is… [Read more]
Facing a double-whammy of a credit-fuelled housing bubble and a slowdown in Chinese economic activity, the outlook for Australia’s economy is turning increasingly precarious. While consensus continues to point towards further monetary tightening by the Reserve Bank of Australia, Business Monitor’s Head of Asia analysis, Stuart Allsopp, believes that further interest rate hikes are unlikely…. [Read more]
On this week’s Business Monitor Podcast, Head of Country Risk & Financial Markets Justin Patrie, Chief Economist Tim Cooper and Head of Asia Analysis Stuart Allsop discuss the global strategic outlook. The market sell-off catalysed by the German ban on naked short selling has reinforced BMI’s core views including deflation over inflation, a slowdown in… [Read more]
On May 6, a day when the Dow had at one point dropped by a record 1,000 points, when German 2-year bond yields dropped 10bps to a record low 0.46% and when the spread of the 10-year Greek over German bond yields spiked to a record high 850bps, the Governing Council of the European Central… [Read more]
New property market cooling measures announced by China’s State Council on April 15 seek to curb speculative demand for real estate by raising down payment requirements and mortgage rates, while giving local government officials the responsibility for failing to stabilise property prices. If the measures work, which I think they might, then property prices in… [Read more]
Brazil’s Q409 real GDP reading came in roughly in line with market expectations, posting a growth rate of 2.0% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) seasonally adjusted – its highest reading in two years. Expectations of a robust headline number for Q4 have previously sent the interbank deposit (DI) futures market higher, amid expectations that the Banco Central do… [Read more]
With bad news out of Greece and other southern eurozone states casting a long shadow over much of Europe in recent months, finding relative value has become more difficult. Certainly, equities and currencies do not offer the same buying opportunities that they did during the Q209-Q309 rally. However, a weak growth outlook on the back… [Read more]
