As the first anniversary of the start of the Arab Spring passes by, attention is naturally focused on the political transitions in Egypt, Libya, and Yemen, and the quasi-civil war in Syria. Iraq hasn’t attracted too much attention of late, and even the United States’ withdrawal of its troops in December 2011 was a low-key… [Read more]
In our December oil price outlook, we highlighted two factors that dominated the oil market during the course of 2011. Firstly, repeated production outages in the North Sea, West Africa and elsewhere, coupled with the Libyan civil war, resulted in serious supply tightness. Secondly, demand remained resilient despite a deteriorating macro-economic environment. We expect these… [Read more]
One of the biggest risks to the global economy at present is the possibility that Iran could close the Strait of Hormuz, in line with its recent threats. Around 20% of the world’s oil trade and 28% of liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports pass through the waterway, and any disruption to this would cause oil… [Read more]
As 2011 draws to a close, I thought I’d take the opportunity to share some ‘outrageous’ political predictions for 2012. When crafting these, I tried to avoid coming up with ‘obvious’ risks such as the break-up of the eurozone, an Israeli attack on Iran, or a terror attack in a major city. Please note that… [Read more]
The answer to this question is, probably not. Turkey is quite different from Iran in its modern history, domestic political system, economic structure, society, and foreign policy. Nevertheless, Turkey’s growing assertiveness in the Middle East, its slow drift away from the West in favour of closer relations with Russia and China, and its willingness to… [Read more]
Libyan rebels appear to have taken control of the capital Tripoli. However, Business Monitor’s Head of Political Risk Yoel Sano cautions against premature optimism. While stability remains far from assured at the present juncture, we also speak with Saket Vemprala, Oil & Gas analyst, about the outlook for the all-important energy sector and when Libyan… [Read more]
Iran’s economy is not entirely coruscating. The government’s subsidy reform programme, international sanctions, and rising political risk all bode ill for the Islamic Republic’s macroeconomic outlook. Nonetheless, my colleagues and I believe that there may still be pockets of growth potential. Indeed, although our 2011 real GDP growth forecast stands at a paltry 1.2%, we… [Read more]
