Early returns from Iraq’s national elections suggest that Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s State of Law Alliance is on track to secure the highest number of seats of any party in the next parliament, and that he himself is well placed to retain his post. If Maliki does stay on in his role, this should ensure [Read more...]

Regular readers of this blog will know that my colleagues and I have recently been discussing the growing possibility of Israeli military action against Iran’s nuclear programme (I highly recommend listening to Business Monitor’s Podcast on this subject). However, let us now do a little thought experiment: flash forward five years, and imagine that Iran [Read more...]

On this week’s Business Monitor Podcast, BMI’s Head of Middle East Analysis Elizabeth Martins and Middle East Analyst Andrew Fargus discuss rising political risks in Iran concerning the nuclear situation. With diplomatic tensions escalating, Fargus assesses the implications of a potential Israeli strike on Iran, and discusses the latter’s retaliatory options. At home, the Iranian [Read more...]

 

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With the announcement on February 11 by President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad that Iran has produced its first batch of uranium enriched to 20%, the Islamic Republic has moved a step closer to being able to produce a nuclear weapon. Tehran insists that its nuclear programme has no military applications, and that the 20% enriched uranium will [Read more...]

There are growing indications that the Iranian banking system is in crisis, weighed down by a proliferation of non-performing loans. Although there is no timely financial reporting to speak of in Iran, a number of recent news stories suggest to me that the country’s banks are in a great deal of trouble.

Central Bank of [Read more...]

What do the Great Fire of London, the rise of Adolf Hitler, and the attacks of September 11 2001 have in common? Though their occurrence spanned hundreds of years and different continents, they were all predicted well in advance, and by a single man. Michel de Nostradame, a.k.a. Nostradamus, the 16th century seer who used [Read more...]

As our decade draws to a close, several important developments are taking place that could have a major geopolitical impact in the 2010s.

The first is obviously the foiled Christmas Day plot to destroy Northwest Flight 253 over Detroit. This was a firm reminder that international Islamist terrorism against Western countries is still very much [Read more...]