The title of a recent Business Monitor International report highlights the view that the eurozone is expected to muddle through. However, as Bruce Jeffery, Global Markets Strategist at Business Monitor, explains, a resolution to the ongoing sovereign debt debacle will require a crisis of epic proportions. While implausible at this juncture, alternative scenarios cannot be… [Read more]
The EU-wide bank stress test results released on July 15 offered little reprieve for financial markets as concerns over the eurozone sovereign debt crisis continue to dominate. At the heart of the stress test scenario is the ‘adverse scenario’, in which the euro-area economy contracts 0.5% in 2011 and equity markets fall 15%, while banks… [Read more]
Irish Prime Minister Brian Cowen last Friday finally unveiled the date on which the country will hold elections: March 11. BMI expects Cowen’s Fianna Fáil party to suffer a heavy defeat on account of widespread disenchantment over its handling of the Irish economy in the run up to and following the global financial crisis. The… [Read more]
Ireland’s decision to apply for a bailout from the European Union has not helped defend the euro or calm treasury markets elsewhere in the periphery. On this week’s Business Monitor Podcast, BMI’s Head of Country Risk & Financial Markets talks with Global Economic Strategist Tim Cooper and Head of Europe Analysis Mark Schaltuper about the… [Read more]
On November 21, the Irish government formally requested financial support from the European Union, taking the first step in accessing the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF). The move was largely expected, with visits to Dublin from EU, ECB and IMF officials earlier in the month signaling to markets to price in a bail-out (see Business… [Read more]
Friday morning’s news that the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) has decided to raise the yuan reserve requirement ratio for banks by 50bps to 18.5% comes as little surprise to BMI. It is in line with our Asia team’s expectations that the ratio would be increased further in order to cool runaway credit growth. And… [Read more]
Looking at recent economic data and leading indicators, such as the Ifo Business Climate Index, I get the impression that the economic recovery of Europe’s largest economy knows no bounds. Indeed, after posting its fastest economic growth rate since re-unification (at 2.2%), my colleagues at Business Monitor International have upgraded their real GDP growth forecast… [Read more]
