Looking at recent economic data and leading indicators, such as the Ifo Business Climate Index, I get the impression that the economic recovery of Europe’s largest economy knows no bounds. Indeed, after posting its fastest economic growth rate since re-unification (at 2.2%), my colleagues at Business Monitor International have upgraded their real GDP growth forecast… [Read more]
On this week’s Business Monitor Podcast we assess the outlook for global treasury markets. 2010 has thus far been a gangbusters year for treasuries and the implications for interest rate and inflation expectations has heavily reinforced our core macroeconomic outlook for a major downturn in global demand growth. Key questions addressed in the podcast include:… [Read more]
Last week Mark Schaltuper, BMI’s Head of Europe Analysis, spoke on CNBC European Closing Bell about the prospect of an internal devaluation for the least competitive eurozone economies.
Financial markets seem to have a very short memory span when it comes to aligning with macroeconomic fundamentals these days. Though the release of housing sales numbers in the US today and the short-lived euphoria of China’s loosening of its exchange rate regime at the start of the week seem to have shaken up equities… [Read more]
In its continuing search to make sense of financial market meltdowns, the Watchdog has detected a pattern in the ongoing crisis: islands are getting hit the hardest. New Zealand (actually two big islands), the home of the kiwi and of the carry trade, is officially in recession. Japan (an archipelago) has been in trouble for… [Read more]
