Japan and Italy have quite a bit in common. Both have histories stretching back 2,700 years. More recently, both are underperforming economies that have accumulated colossal debt burdens which rapidly ageing (and in Japan’s case, already shrinking) populations will struggle to pay off. In addition, both countries have weak political systems characterised by dozens of… [Read more]
The title of a recent Business Monitor International report highlights the view that the eurozone is expected to muddle through. However, as Bruce Jeffery, Global Markets Strategist at Business Monitor, explains, a resolution to the ongoing sovereign debt debacle will require a crisis of epic proportions. While implausible at this juncture, alternative scenarios cannot be… [Read more]
Mark Schaltuper, Head of Europe Country Risk and Financial Markets, and Tim Cooper, Chief Economic Strategist, come together to discuss Business Monitor’s latest Special Report titled “Market Meltdown: Global Economy On The Edge”. With the US reeling from debt concerns after losing its AAA credit rating, the eurozone dogged by the ongoing sovereign debt crises,… [Read more]
The EU-wide bank stress test results released on July 15 offered little reprieve for financial markets as concerns over the eurozone sovereign debt crisis continue to dominate. At the heart of the stress test scenario is the ‘adverse scenario’, in which the euro-area economy contracts 0.5% in 2011 and equity markets fall 15%, while banks… [Read more]
The eurozone debt crisis took a turn for the worse in the week beginning July 11, with Italian yields spiking sharply higher as fears over sovereign indebtedness spread beyond the region’s periphery to affect its third-largest economy. Although the Italian Senate agreed to pass a EUR48bn austerity package on July 14, with the lower house… [Read more]
Although Greece is unsurprisingly receiving the lion’s share of investor attention over its fiscal crisis, other southern European countries are also worth watching. BMI has long warned about Italy’s enormous public debt burden – a sentiment echoed on June 17 by ratings agency Moody’s, which placed its Aa1 sovereign rating on review for possible downgrade…. [Read more]
Last week Mark Schaltuper, BMI’s Head of Europe Analysis, spoke on CNBC European Closing Bell about the prospect of an internal devaluation for the least competitive eurozone economies.
