Japan and Italy have quite a bit in common. Both have histories stretching back 2,700 years. More recently, both are underperforming economies that have accumulated colossal debt burdens which rapidly ageing (and in Japan’s case, already shrinking) populations will struggle to pay off. In addition, both countries have weak political systems characterised by dozens of… [Read more]

Less than a fortnight ago, with eurozone credit concerns reaching fever pitch, we believed it was necessary to remind readers of Japan’s perilous sovereign debt outlook (see Business Monitor Online, ‘Charting The Public Debt Time-Bomb’, November 18, 2011). A quick comparison of gross debt metrics, repayment schedules, and economic growth prospects would suggest that Japan… [Read more]

Many readers could be forgiven for ignoring the selection of Yoshihiko Noda, hitherto finance minister, as Japan’s new prime minister – the sixth in five years – on August 29. Yet, as the Tohoku earthquake demonstrated, Japan still matters a great deal for industrial supply chains and as a source of foreign investment and tourism… [Read more]

While investors’ attentions are naturally focused on the meltdown in global financial markets, there are several other noteworthy developments taking place around the world that could add to the sense of global risks. The following are in no particular order: Tensions are once again rising on the Korean Peninsula. North Korea is conducting military exercises,… [Read more]

(*Give or take a couple of centuries) While surveying the globe for key risks, I couldn’t help but notice that some of the world’s oldest countries are facing critical tests over the next decade that could redefine them for a long time to come. If handled successfully, the crises could give them a new lease… [Read more]

It is now just over one month since Japan was struck by a devastating earthquake, tsunami, and nuclear crisis. On Tuesday, the government raised the severity rating of the Fukushima reactor disaster to level seven, matching that of Chernobyl, Ukraine, in 1986. Perhaps the biggest question is, how will its worst since World War II… [Read more]

Much has been made over the potential impact of recent events in Japan on international rice markets. Given the importance of rice as a staple in Asia and increasing concern over food price inflation in emerging markets, this is of particular relevance. Japan, normally self-sufficient in rice, has seen swathes of coastal farmland devastated by… [Read more]