Convergence – the process by which less developed economies ‘catch-up’ with their more developed peers through rapid improvements in productivity – has been the dominant story throughout Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) for the better part of two decades now.

Certainly, it is the prevalent model by which most analysts expect the Western Balkans to follow over the long term, with newly signed Stabilisation and Association Agreements with the EU expected to usher in a period of relatively rapid growth and improved prosperity in the region. Macedonia is a classic example of a convergence story that has tentatively gone right, whose legal and regulatory reforms over the past eight years have helped make it not only a relative economic outperformer, but also a legitimate candidate for EU accession in the medium term.

For some, however, the convergence road (all lanes lead to Brussels) is not always paved with gold. Whether it is perceptions of endemic corruption or electoral fraud (Albania), or elevated ethnic-tensions slowing necessary reforms (Bosnia), some states appear to have hitched a ride to Europe on a mule-powered wagon. Accordingly, the pace of convergence is expected to remain drawn-out going forward, particularly compared to the speed with which previous states throughout the region were able to grow.

Unfortunately, the outlook for Kosovo – the newest member of the World Bank and IMF – is even more downtrodden. My colleagues at Business Monitor International recently published a new 10-year forecast for the economy, and to make a long story short, it’s not pretty.

Indeed, by 2018 it seems like Kosovo will look less like Macedonia than it will Moldova. But what does it mean to look like Moldova? Basically, remittances are expected to remain a key source of growth, as a lack of foreign investment hinders Kosovo’s ability to develop and widen its export base. Moreover, as increasing numbers of young Kosovars enter the workforce and encounter considerable degrees of structural unemployment (approximately a third of the population is under the age of 15), they will likely seek employment in the more rapidly developing economies in the region. While this will boost remittance inflows, it will also be a key factor undermining long-term growth potential. To be sure, you know your economy is in trouble when your citizens go to Albania to find work…

As a result, Kosovo will likely remain an agrarian economy through the next ten years, with levels of GDP per capita rivalling those of lesser developed states in Africa and Asia. So long as there is a lack of a guarantee on long-term property rights – which the uncertain nature of Kosovo’s final constitutional status brings about (the International Court of Justice will begin hearing arguments over Pristina’s declaration of independence beginning in December) – I wouldn’t expect foreign investors to begin pouring their money into the economy.

Unfortunately, this means that as Serbia, Montenegro and Albania slowly make progress along the convergence road, Kosovo will continue to fall further behind. For the time being, one of the best case scenarios that Pristina can hope for is to have international aid continue flowing in, helping to drive the most basic of improvements in underlying infrastructure. So, while the road to Brussels may be temporarily closed, at least they’ll have a road to practice their driving on.