Recent events in Madagascar remind me that coups remain a clear and present danger in sub-Saharan Africa. Just two weeks after the assassination of Guineau-Bissau’s president, Madagascar’s leader has been ousted by the opposition. Sure, some countries have been making democratic headway, with Ghana’s December 2008 elections having cemented the nation’s reputation as a beacon of stability in West Africa. But the news has been overwhelmingly bad in the region over the past year or so, with Kenya and Zimbabwe virtually imploding in the aftermath of elections. Madagascar has proved something of a wildcard. Until recently, the nation was renowned for its political stability. However, rising discontent amid high inflation has galvanised support for the opposition, allowing its leader, Andry Rajoelina, to seize power, backed by the army. The maverick politician has installed himself in the presidential palace, following the military’s invasion of the building on March 16, and the subsequent resignation of President Marc Ravalomanana on March 17.

Given the unconstitutional nature of Rajoelina’s seizure of power, it’s only a matter of time before the chorus of international condemnation starts up. The immediate implications could include foreign nations cutting aid – the European Union has already threatened to do so – and foreign investors including Rio Tinto and Sherritt International pulling out of Madagascar, possibly leading the nation into a recession. In the near term, civil unrest is likely to continue, given the extreme uncertainty clouding the political environment. So what next? Beyond the coming days, I foresee two main scenarios:

Scenario One: Rajoelina Retains Power, Organises Election

Rajoelina has the support of the army, and this could give him sufficient impetus to create a transitional government, albeit in the face of widespread international criticism. Opposition officials have recently said that they would organise elections within 24 months and re-write the constitution to create a ‘Fourth Republic’.

Scenario Two: Power-Sharing Agreement Struck

The pressure on Rajoelina to bow to international diplomacy will be significant, especially as aid inflows and foreign investment could come under threat. Following the example of Kenya, the maverick politician could be forced into a shotgun marriage (a.k.a. a coalition government). Under this scenario, Ravalomanana and Rajoelina would share power, but I wouldn’t expect too much in the way of reform from these uneasy bedfellows