Navistar International CEO Dan Ustian has warned the US truck maker may shift production away from Mexico in light of the escalating political instability in the country, particularly that related to drug violence. BMI has long been concerned about the impact of such disturbances on business investment sentiment in Mexico and we see the warning… [Read more]
Political risk has ceased to be a dominant theme in Latin America over the past couple of years, allowing the region to emerge ever more prominently on global investors’ radar screens since the global financial crisis. The focus, instead, shifted towards the region’s resource wealth, the vast capital investment growth potential and the growing consumer… [Read more]
Political risk in Latin America has not been on most investors’ radar screens since the global financial crisis. Sure, you’ve had the headline grabbing stories about Mexico’s drug cartels, and Venezuelan leader Hugo Chávez’s colourful rhetoric still gets a fair bit of exposure outside the region. There’s also been a military coup in Honduras, and… [Read more]
I like a number Latin American FX majors against the US dollar, but for very different reasons. In Mexico’s case, strong currency performance will continue to be driven by the carry trade, whereas in Brazil the demand for both yield and capital appreciation will keep upside pressure on the real. This view is best highlighted… [Read more]
While my colleagues at Business Monitor believe developed-state equity markets will outperform EM equities in 2011, they still believe it is still too early to call the end of the EM equity rally, and I tend to agree with them. True, many Latin American bourses look expensive, and this contrasts starkly to developed states, where… [Read more]
Political and economic upheaval is a regular occurrence around the world, but what makes the recent unrest in Egypt so worthy of attention is the country’s overwhelming geopolitical importance in the world. Quite simply, my colleagues and I view Egypt as a ‘pivotal state’. There is no official definition of the term ‘pivotal state’ (although… [Read more]
Several developments in 2010 will linger well into 2011. My colleagues and BMI’s Oil and Gas Team see industry majors continuing their push into deepwater drilling and unconventional hydrocarbons, while cash-rich national oil companies keep looking for upstream opportunities. Depressed US gas prices are unlikely to move significantly in 2011, while Asia-Pacific remains the LNG… [Read more]
