Political and economic upheaval is a regular occurrence around the world, but what makes the recent unrest in Egypt so worthy of attention is the country’s overwhelming geopolitical importance in the world. Quite simply, my colleagues and I view Egypt as a ‘pivotal state’. There is no official definition of the term ‘pivotal state’ (although… [Read more]
Several developments in 2010 will linger well into 2011. My colleagues and BMI’s Oil and Gas Team see industry majors continuing their push into deepwater drilling and unconventional hydrocarbons, while cash-rich national oil companies keep looking for upstream opportunities. Depressed US gas prices are unlikely to move significantly in 2011, while Asia-Pacific remains the LNG… [Read more]
On this week’s Business Monitor Podcast we assess the outlook for global treasury markets. 2010 has thus far been a gangbusters year for treasuries and the implications for interest rate and inflation expectations has heavily reinforced our core macroeconomic outlook for a major downturn in global demand growth. Key questions addressed in the podcast include:… [Read more]
On this week’s Business Monitor Podcast, we continue our theme of ‘top emerging market picks’ with a focus on Latin America. BMI’s Head of Country Risk and Financial Markets Justin Patrie discusses the region with Head of Latin America Analysis Richard Hamilton and Latin America Analyst Martha Stickings. Specific countries discussed include Colombia, Brazil, Panama… [Read more]
Mexico’s Cemex, one of the top three cement producers in the world, has reported disappointing H1 2010 results, posting a net loss of US$642mn for the period. Although the results offer little in the way of optimism for the performance of the construction industry, they do align well with the BMI infrastructure team’s core views… [Read more]
BMI’s newest core view is that private healthcare spending as a percentage of total healthcare expenditure in emerging markets will decrease over the medium term. Governments in these countries increasingly appreciate the value of a healthy population and are boosting investment in medical services, such as pharmaceuticals, diagnostics, doctors, nurses, clinics and hospitals. Notable public… [Read more]
Against an increasingly challenging global economic backdrop, Richard Hamilton, Head of Latin America analysis at Business Monitor International, outlines three core themes for the region. Having been among the first regions to emerge from the global economic downturn in 2009, we take a look at the likely impact of a double-dip in China and an… [Read more]
