Facing a double-whammy of a credit-fuelled housing bubble and a slowdown in Chinese economic activity, the outlook for Australia’s economy is turning increasingly precarious. While consensus continues to point towards further monetary tightening by the Reserve Bank of Australia, Business Monitor’s Head of Asia analysis, Stuart Allsopp, believes that further interest rate hikes are unlikely…. [Read more]
One of the most underestimated risks facing the global economy is an outright recession in China. Almost nobody in the world of economics or finance believes that it is possible, let alone likely. However, is it really that unlikely? The CLSA purchasing managers index has already topped out in April 2010, so while China’s economy… [Read more]
Brazil’s Q409 real GDP reading came in roughly in line with market expectations, posting a growth rate of 2.0% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) seasonally adjusted – its highest reading in two years. Expectations of a robust headline number for Q4 have previously sent the interbank deposit (DI) futures market higher, amid expectations that the Banco Central do… [Read more]
The end of month closes across asset classes could be the most important since March 2009, when a clear reversal pattern prompted us to turn bullish towards equities. This time, a weak close would suggest an end to the rally of the past 10 months, with the potential for some significant medium-term downside for equities… [Read more]
This week the People’s Bank of China tried to send a clear signal that it is starting to tighten monetary conditions as the economic recovery takes hold. Stuart Allsopp, BMI China analyst, explains the significance of the bank’s move to raise its 3-month bill financing rate and reserve requirement ratios for the monetary policy outlook… [Read more]
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) hiked interest rates on Tuesday, from 3.00% to 3.25%, in what appears to have marked the first act of monetary tightening since the 25 basis point hike by the ECB back in August 2008. I salute the RBA. Unlike the rest of the global central banking community, it has… [Read more]
With the economic cycle having hit bottom and turning, thanks in no small part to massive fiscal and monetary stimulus, attention is now turning to when that stimulus is likely to be withdrawn. For me, the likelihood is that tighter policy is going to be put off as long as possible by the authorities in… [Read more]
