BMI has long-warned that expectations of Chinese yuan (CNY) appreciation are not fundamentally sound, and back in October, my colleagues and I anticipated that the yuan would be re-pegged to the US dollar as the Chinese economy slowed. We now increasingly recognise that a devaluation in the CNY/US$ spot rate could happen in 2012, or… [Read more]
China’s 2010 real GDP growth figure came in at 10.3%, slightly exceeding BMI’s revised forecast of 10.2%. With no breakdown of the data available as of yet, I can only conclude that growth momentum ended 2010 on a stronger note than expected (by ourselves and the market). Data on retail sales, which rose by 19.1%… [Read more]
Risk Watchdog and his colleagues at Business Monitor International (BMI) have grown very bullish Latin American currencies. Three views in particular stand out and form part of the BMI Global Key Market Views portfolio: Last Friday, my colleagues at BMI initiated a long Chilean peso/short US dollar view, which hit the initial CLP510.00/US$ target within… [Read more]