In this week’s podcast Mark Schaltuper (Head of Latin America Analysis) and Terry Alexander (Head of Country Risk and Financial Markets) discuss the return of risk appetite to global markets. Assessing recent moves and a stronger-than-expected bounce in developed markets’ equities, we explore potential opportunities and the implications for emerging markets.

 

 Standard Podcast [12:46m]
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BMI’s Africa team cautions that political risk in Sub-Saharan Africa may be on the rise as a full-blown leadership crisis continues to escalate in Nigeria. Alan Cameron and Lisa Lewin provide some insight into an increasingly tense political situation, sharing their views on potential outcomes from the ongoing crisis. The next couple of weeks and [Read more...]

 

 Standard Podcast [09:40m]
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The Ghana All-Share Index was the worst-performing stock market in Sub-Saharan Africa in 2009, but I believe that it could reverse its fortunes and be among the top performers in 2010. Having experienced a dramatic 48.0% fall in the first half of 2009, the market has found support around 5,200, and now appears to be [Read more...]

As the rally in the more common emerging market assets starts to look shaky, I see a number of reasons to like what’s on offer in frontier markets, Africa in particular. To my mind, the two assets that really stand out are Nigerian equities, and the Ugandan shilling.

In the case of Nigerian stocks, I see [Read more...]

Surprise, surprise, there is (yet again) trouble brewing in Nigeria. Nope, this time the spotlight is not on the Niger Delta rebels, but on something potentially far more deadly: the country’s banking sector. Sounds familiar? Indeed, as attentive Risk Watchdog readers might remember, way back in January I mentioned how opaque reporting standards and large [Read more...]

Nigeria’s main militant group, the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta, has announced a 60-day ceasefire in a bid to kick start talks with the government. Albeit a fragile truce, the news should provide a boost for the government’s bolder stance on a host of political and economic policies, not least on the [Read more...]

 

 Standard Podcast [8:47m]
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It seems like every other little hiccup in the price of oil is blamed on sabotage in the Niger Delta. The region produces 1.5-2.5mn barrels of oil per day, depending on how active the militant activity in the region is at any given time. At the end of June however, Nigerian President Umaru Yar’Adua (local [Read more...]