While investors’ attentions are naturally focused on the meltdown in global financial markets, there are several other noteworthy developments taking place around the world that could add to the sense of global risks. The following are in no particular order: Tensions are once again rising on the Korean Peninsula. North Korea is conducting military exercises,… [Read more]

Political and economic upheaval is a regular occurrence around the world, but what makes the recent unrest in Egypt so worthy of attention is the country’s overwhelming geopolitical importance in the world. Quite simply, my colleagues and I view Egypt as a ‘pivotal state’. There is no official definition of the term ‘pivotal state’ (although… [Read more]

A couple of years ago, I coined the acronym BLANKs to describe a group of Asian economies which have considerable development potential, but are being constrained by highly esoteric political or geopolitical problems. The countries in question are Burma (officially called Myanmar), Laos, Afghanistan, and North Korea. At the time, I cautioned that despite their… [Read more]

North Korea’s artillery attack on the South Korean island of Yeonpyeong in the hotly disputed maritime border region is a provocative move to say the least. Although North and South have clashed at sea before, most notably resulting in the sinking of the Southern warship Cheonan in March, and have exchanged gunfire at the Demilitarised… [Read more]

North Korea’s succession drama has officially kicked off, with ailing leader Kim Jong Il, 68, appointing his 26- or 27-year old third son, Kim Jong Un, to the rank of General. Bizarrely, also promoted to General was Kim Jong Il’s 64-year old sister Kim Kyong Hui. Neither of them have any military experience, so the… [Read more]

One of the most oft-repeated axioms of Asian geopolitics is that there won’t be a new war on the Korean Peninsula because neither North and South Korea nor their principal backers (China and the US) want it to happen. The South and the US will not attack the North because that would lead to a… [Read more]

One thing which I believe is becoming increasingly likely is a third nuclear test by North Korea. Last May, when North Korea tested its second nuke, I suggested that the entire nuclear dispute had taken on the feeling of one too many a season of ‘24’ – i.e. it had lost the ability to shock… [Read more]