In our December oil price outlook, we highlighted two factors that dominated the oil market during the course of 2011. Firstly, repeated production outages in the North Sea, West Africa and elsewhere, coupled with the Libyan civil war, resulted in serious supply tightness. Secondly, demand remained resilient despite a deteriorating macro-economic environment. We expect these… [Read more]
Commodity prices have dramatically fallen out of their multi-year uptrends in recent months, as the global macroeconomic environment has deteriorated and risk aversion swept through markets. This week, Edward Coughlan, BMI’s Head of Mining Analysis is joined by John Davies, Head of Commodities Analysis, to discuss the outlook for commodity prices in 2012.
Our bearish stance towards oil continues to play out, with Brent crude getting pummelled following the International Energy Agency (IEA)’s June 23 announcement that it would release two million barrels of oil per day over the next two months from its strategic reserves. Despite a massive 9.4% decline over the last two weeks, we continue… [Read more]
Weak US economic data, renewed crisis fears in the eurozone and ample supply conditions have taken a heavy toll on the price of oil over the week June 13-17, with front-month Brent crude posting a 4.8% drop (at the time of writing) from the US$118.46/bbl level at which it started the week. While a short-term… [Read more]
Commodity markets have bounced further since last week as some of the oversold momentum has continued to unwind. Moreover, equity markets bouncing and the US dollar is weakening against the euro, both of which will be positive commodities on a short-term basis. While my colleagues at Business Monitor see potential for a short-term bounce, and… [Read more]
As the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) experiences its biggest shake-up in at least a generation, Business Monitor International (BMI) has just published a special report, MENA Crisis: The Key Risk To Global Recovery And Stability. The report analyses the following topics: The long-term consequences of upheaval for the Middle East and North Africa… [Read more]
Commodity markets have been edging higher in recent days as risk appetite has tentatively re-emerged. With several key markets now testing resistance, how much further can commodities bounce? With this question in mind, I would highlight the following: In the event of a continued improvement in risk appetite over the coming days, Brent Crude and… [Read more]
