Commodity markets have bounced further since last week as some of the oversold momentum has continued to unwind. Moreover, equity markets bouncing and the US dollar is weakening against the euro, both of which will be positive commodities on a short-term basis. While my colleagues at Business Monitor see potential for a short-term bounce, and… [Read more]

As the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) experiences its biggest shake-up in at least a generation, Business Monitor International (BMI) has just published a special report, MENA Crisis: The Key Risk To Global Recovery And Stability. The report analyses the following topics: The long-term consequences of upheaval for the Middle East and North Africa… [Read more]

Commodity markets have been edging higher in recent days as risk appetite has tentatively re-emerged. With several key markets now testing resistance, how much further can commodities bounce? With this question in mind, I would highlight the following: In the event of a continued improvement in risk appetite over the coming days, Brent Crude and… [Read more]

The decision taken by President Hugo Chávez’s administration to suspend trading in Venezuela’s black market ‘parallel’ rate marks a step closer to Zimbabwe-style hyperinflation and domestic economic ruin. To-date the government has avoided paying the cost of its rampant spending spree and erosion of productive capacity thanks to robust global oil prices, but even without… [Read more]

Latin America will soon have a new currency, the Sistema Único de Compensación Regional, or Sucre, for short. It’s no coincidence that the currency’s acronym is also the name of 19th century regional independence leader, Antonio José de Sucre, close friend and ally of Simón Bolívar, in whose name the currency’s proponents (members of the… [Read more]

My colleagues and I at Business Monitor International (BMI) frequently initiate or exit positions in our in-house mock portfolio, a practice which regular readers of our online service and weekly Emerging Markets Monitor magazine will be familiar with. Today, I shed some light on BMI’s Africa portfolio. Given the current correction in global stock markets… [Read more]

Five years ago, economists and investors were fretting about ‘triple shocks’ hitting the world economy. Lest you have forgotten, these were the US Federal Reserve preparing to raise interest rates after a long period at 1.00%; a sharp slowdown in China; and rising oil prices. Now, I see a possibility that triple shocks will once… [Read more]