One of the biggest risks to the global economy at present is the possibility that Iran could close the Strait of Hormuz, in line with its recent threats. Around 20% of the world’s oil trade and 28% of liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports pass through the waterway, and any disruption to this would cause oil… [Read more]

Despite signs that a last-minute agreement on raising the US debt ceiling will be reached before today’s deadline, Risk Watchdog remains neutral commodity markets. This is due to the view that other macro headwinds will keep commodity prices in check over H211. In this environment, gold should continue outperforming. Although a short-term rally is possible… [Read more]

Saturday, July 9, 2011 saw the birth of a new nation: South Sudan. It is not so often that a new sovereign state comes into being, so how South Sudan fares will certainly be worth watching from a political and economic risk point of view. Generally speaking, most of the nation states that have emerged… [Read more]

Yesterday, my colleagues and I wrote about the domestic implications of Japan’s earthquake. Today, we look at some of the more salient external ramifications: Downside Risks For Base Metals… Base metals continue to correct in line with the view our Commodities team presented last week, but the earthquake in Japan has added additional downside pressure… [Read more]

Brent crude made an upward surge on February 24, hitting a new post-financial crisis high of US$119.79/bbl, as Colonel Muammar al-Qadhafi lost control of vast swathes of oil-producing Libya to pro-democracy protesters. However, my colleagues and I are not convinced that oil will continue to sky-rocket and hit new all-time highs. Instead we see consolidation… [Read more]

Fund managers, analysts and traders often talk about the importance of being selective in stock picking. While the emergence of the risk-off/risk-on trade in recent years has perhaps lessened the appeal of this somewhat, in many markets an investor’s choice of sector or company continues to mean vastly differing returns. Since the global financial crisis,… [Read more]

Several developments in 2010 will linger well into 2011. My colleagues and BMI’s Oil and Gas Team see industry majors continuing their push into deepwater drilling and unconventional hydrocarbons, while cash-rich national oil companies keep looking for upstream opportunities. Depressed US gas prices are unlikely to move significantly in 2011, while Asia-Pacific remains the LNG… [Read more]