For decades, oil and gas investors in Africa have focused on exploiting the riches of the continent’s established producers Nigeria, Angola, Libya and Algeria. In recent years, however, spurred on by large discoveries offshore Ghana and in the Lake Albert region in Uganda, the industry has been looking beyond the traditional oil markets to a [Read more...]

Industrial commodities such as energy and base metals are highly correlated to risk appetite and hence equity markets. Below I highlight the monthly rolling correlation between Brent crude and the Dow Jones. The two main things to note are that first, on a monthly basis, the correlation stands at 0.9 (which implies a strong and [Read more...]

One area of significant interest in the US energy market over the past eighteen months has been hydrocarbons extracted from shale. Strong industry interest in shale-derived gas may yet reverse the medium-term decline in US natural gas production. Shale deposits are widespread across the US, but concentrated in states such as Texas, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania [Read more...]

In response to Iran’s non-compliance with the UN over its nuclear programme, and its continued support for terrorist organisations, the US Congress on June 24 passed the Comprehensive Iran Sanctions, Accountability and Divestment Act of 2010 – an amendment to the original Iran Sanctions Act of 1996.

As expected, the act tightened restrictions against Iranian commercial [Read more...]

The downward revision to China’s leading economic index has weighed significantly on equity and commodity markets this morning. The conference board claimed that the index rose by only 0.3% in April, marking a significant downward revision from the 1.7% released earlier this month. This ties in well with several of Business Monitor’s views; a relatively [Read more...]

The decision taken by President Hugo Chávez’s administration to suspend trading in Venezuela’s black market ‘parallel’ rate marks a step closer to Zimbabwe-style hyperinflation and domestic economic ruin. To-date the government has avoided paying the cost of its rampant spending spree and erosion of productive capacity thanks to robust global oil prices, but even without [Read more...]

Looking up the river Maas towards the Pernis refinery in the Netherlands, it is hard to believe that refining in Europe is almost certainly in irreversible decline. Pernis, the largest refinery in Western Europe, is a vast complex of chimneys, storage units and gleaming silver piping, occupying what seems like an entire district of the [Read more...]