In Business Monitor Online today, we outline key risks in two economies. In the case of Croatia, we retain our view that the government will seek IMF backing of some sort this year, which will help avert a full-blown crisis in the economy. This is predicated on the increasingly difficult conditions for Croatian financial markets… [Read more]

With Libya’s rebel forces having entered Tripoli on August 21, 2011, the country’s leader, Colonel Muammar Qadhafi, has seemingly lost power after 42 years. Although the rebels appear to have exaggerated their control of the capital – as evidenced by the defiant reappearance of Qadhafi’s son Saif al-Islam on August 23, thereby contradicting rebel claims… [Read more]

Yesterday, S&P affirmed its AAA long-term sovereign credit rating on the US, but revised its outlook on the long-term rating to negative from stable. Full coverage of this is available on Business Monitor Online, but here are my thoughts: This change in outlook, according to their methodology, implies a 33% chance that S&P will actually… [Read more]

After a strong rally in 2007 and the first half of 2008, gold is now trading down from its peak, and in a volatile fashion. The question on everyone’s mind is whether or not gold is a good investment for 2009. This is a tricky forecast, as gold continues to be buffeted by multiple dynamics…. [Read more]

We are living in extraordinary times, and this makes predicting the nature of the post-credit crunch landscape increasingly difficult. Unfortunately, unlike the Isaac Mendes character from the US TV drama Heroes, I do not have the ability to paint visions of the future on canvas by going into a kind of hypnotic trance. However, what… [Read more]