Against an increasingly challenging global economic backdrop, Richard Hamilton, Head of Latin America analysis at Business Monitor International, outlines three core themes for the region. Having been among the first regions to emerge from the global economic downturn in 2009, we take a look at the likely impact of a double-dip in China and an… [Read more]
The decision taken by President Hugo Chávez’s administration to suspend trading in Venezuela’s black market ‘parallel’ rate marks a step closer to Zimbabwe-style hyperinflation and domestic economic ruin. To-date the government has avoided paying the cost of its rampant spending spree and erosion of productive capacity thanks to robust global oil prices, but even without… [Read more]
If a picture is worth a thousand words, than here is a 3,460 word essay which illustrates the problems Nigeria is having with its currency, and why I think the naira has further to drop. Start with chart one, which shows the total amount of US dollars the central bank sells to commercial banks each… [Read more]
Venezuela’s headline consumer price inflation edged down for a fourth consecutive month in January, falling to 30.7% y-o-y from its peak of 36.0% y-o-y in September. Despite the decline, Venezuela’s inflation outlook remains grim. In fact, since the headline rate hit its peak, the month-on-month inflation figures have actually pushed higher. In short, don’t be… [Read more]
