The apparent victory of centre-left candidate Ollanta Humala in the Peruvian president election could pose significant risks to the mining sector. Having said that, we believe these fears are to an extent overblown. 1: As Humala does not possess a majority in Congress, he will have to form a coalition or gain support from one… [Read more]
Political risk has ceased to be a dominant theme in Latin America over the past couple of years, allowing the region to emerge ever more prominently on global investors’ radar screens since the global financial crisis. The focus, instead, shifted towards the region’s resource wealth, the vast capital investment growth potential and the growing consumer… [Read more]
Political risk in Latin America has not been on most investors’ radar screens since the global financial crisis. Sure, you’ve had the headline grabbing stories about Mexico’s drug cartels, and Venezuelan leader Hugo Chávez’s colourful rhetoric still gets a fair bit of exposure outside the region. There’s also been a military coup in Honduras, and… [Read more]
Left-wing populist candidate Ollanta Humala has taken the lead in the first round of Peru’s presidential elections held on April 10, according to data from the electoral commission and independent pollsters. Should Humala eventually emerge victorious over the centre-right candidate, most probably Keiko Fujimori (daughter of former president Alberto), in the run-off in June, we… [Read more]
The Clash Of The Soft Drinks Giants In Emerging Markets Peruvian drinks company Aje Group announced last week that it is issue its first bond, worth US$200mn, to fund expansion into Asia and Latin America and revealed it was also considering an IPO (initial public offering). The prospect of more rapid growth for Aje is… [Read more]
Emerging Market (EM) equities are looking good at the moment, there is no doubt about it, and as regular readers of Riskwatchdog will already know, I am particularly bullish towards Polish, Turkish and Abu Dhabi stocks. But now looking elsewhere for the next big thing, I turn my attention to Latin America, identifying Peru as… [Read more]
Massive capital inflows across South America raise the spectre that authorities throughout the region are about to impose capital controls. Support for exporters appears to be the main reason for such intervention, but fears over a rapid withdrawal of ‘hot money’ in the event of another ‘double-dip’ also appear to be a factor. Risk Watchdog… [Read more]
