Over the past several weeks we have heard about the gloomy outlook for consumer demand in developed markets. Household deleveraging in the US and the growing debt crisis in peripheral eurozone states suggest that a return to robust demand levels will be hard to come by. In this context, we examine the outlook for the [Read more...]
The outlook for the eurozone is looking steadily worse. Key European economies have thus far failed to capitalise on the bounce in headline growth seen in the US and emerging markets. Concomitantly, a brewing sovereign crisis in Greece has highlighted serious problems of overleverage in Portugal, Spain and Italy. On this week’s podcast, Business Monitor [Read more...]
We have previously highlighted on Risk Watchdog how the aftermath of the global financial crisis has exposed the structural imbalances in many developed economies, while also singling out those emerging markets which are in a fundamentally sound position to exploit the global economic recovery. Poland and Greece are certainly two prime examples at opposite ends [Read more...]
China’s decision to tighten monetary policy on January 12 and weak corporate earnings reports out of the US have put a damper on bullish equity sentiment in Europe. That said, I still think upside momentum can carry further on a tactical basis. Two markets I particularly like are the Russian RTS and Polish WIG20. With [Read more...]
On Monday, November 9, much of Europe will be celebrating the 20th Anniversary of the Fall of the Berlin Wall and the catalyst it provided for the collapse of Communism on the continent. BMI’s Justin Patrie explains the significance of this event for Emerging Europe, and what the outlook is for the next 20 years [Read more...]
Reports that US President Barack Obama will overhaul a plan to build a missile defence shield in the Czech Republic and Poland would appear to represent a major foreign policy shift on Washington’s part, given that the shield was eagerly championed by the Bush administration. The official explanation for Obama’s shift is that Iran’s missiles [Read more...]
BMI’s Justin Patrie cautions against premature excitement following the release of Q2 GDP data for several CEE and eurozone economies. Nevertheless, differentiation will remain key and the usual suspects (i.e. Turkey and Poland) continue to stand out as the ideal relative value play.
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