Following years of intense political infighting within the African National Congress (ANC), which resulted in President Thabo Mbeki getting kicked out and led to the historic establishment of the rival Congress of the People (COPE), South Africa’s parliamentary ballot on April 22 will be the closest-watched election in the country since 1994.

In my mind, there is little doubt that the ANC will emerge victorious from the polls, which will pave the way for ANC leader Jacob Zuma to assume the national presidency, at last. Although the COPE set out to challenge the supremacy of the ANC, I believe the splinter group is unlikely to pose a significant threat to the ruling party’s dominance, at least this time around. Cash-strapped, and facing a limited timeframe, the COPE had a hard time shoring up popular support and presenting itself as a viable political alternative.

There is ample speculation as to whether the ANC is going to lose its two-thirds majority in parliament and what impact this might have on its powerbase. In my view, while such a loss would present an important psychological blow (after all, the ANC has ruled all-powerful for the past 10 years), it would not significantly diminish its power to implement its policy agenda. To be sure, certain bills will be more difficult to push through parliament, and the ANC would no longer be able to unilaterally change the constitution. However, these constraints would not prevent the ANC from increasing social expenditure, tightening labour regulations and tampering with the central bank’s inflation targeting mandate. Last but not least, with Zuma’s corruption charges having been dismissed once and for all, the ANC does not depend on its power to change the constitution to protect its leader from prosecution.

Considering Jacob Zuma’s populist rhetoric and the ANC’s close ties with the country’s left-wing factions, I reckon policy continuity will come under considerable pressure over the coming years, in particular fiscal spending and inflation targeting. Without a doubt, the ANC’s present relations with the South African Communist Party (SACP) and the Congress of South African Trade Unions (COSATU) are by no means perfectly harmonious, and the current alliance is a marriage of convenience rather than a strong ideological pact. However, it would be equally naive to assume that the SACP and the COSATU will have no effect on the ANC’s policy agenda going forward; and with the ANC under the leadership of Zuma not having positioned itself as a reform-minded, market-friendly government, the risks to policy continuity will remain significant.

Despite these uncertainties, South Africa’s political dynamics need to be put into perspective, and I believe suggestions that the country could follow the path of Zimbabwe are overdone. Certainly, the sudden dismissal of Jacob Zuma’s corruption charges has raised eyebrows over the ANC’s alleged interferences with the country’s justice system, causing concerns that the ruling party might continue undermining state institutions for political gains. I guess this will leave a bitter taste in investors’ mouths for quite some time and potentially damage confidence in South Africa’s business environment over the longer term. However, aside from relatively limited risks of wide-spread political violence, the country’s democratic institutions have matured enough to withstand the current pressures. In particular, I believe the emergence of the COPE will play a key role in the sophistication of multi-party democracy and enhance the checks and balance in South African politics going forward.