On this week’s podcast, BMI’s Head of Country Risk & Financial Markets Justin Patrie talks to Jean-Paul Pigat about the ongoing political crisis in the Middle East. The discussion centres on the tactical and strategic implications for regional/global markets and macro. Justin and Jean-Paul also discuss potential political scenarios in Saudi Arabia and Iran as… [Read more]
In light of current unrest in Egypt, we turn our attention southwards to Sub-Saharan Africa, where political risk is rising in Cote d’Ivoire following last year’s disputed election, and in Uganda and Nigeria ahead of elections in February and April, respectively. Meanwhile, higher inflation threatens to bring instability to other countries in the region. BMI’s… [Read more]
Following recent troubles in North Africa, speculation has been rife about which countries will be next in the line of fire. Many commentators have rightly pointed the finger elsewhere in the Middle East; a few others have suggested that contagion risks are actually more acute South of the Sahara. In one of the ludicrous but… [Read more]
2011 is brewing up to be a big year for political risk in emerging markets. Underlying much of the risk is food and energy prices, with rising inflation likely to catalyse public discontent, especially in countries with existing social strains. Nowhere is this more evident than in the Middle East, where the collapse of the… [Read more]
While soft commodity markets including sugar, cocoa and coffee will all be sensitive to supply threats in the short-to-medium term given that all of these markets are tight by historical standards, I am keeping a particularly close eye on cocoa. On one hand, the West African main crop has made a strong start since October,… [Read more]
On this week’s Business Monitor Podcast, we explore key themes in political risk. Thus far, the global financial crisis has arguably had only a limited impact on political stability. That said, BMI’s Head of Political Risk Analysis Yoel Sano cautions that fiscal austerity and inflation remain key risks in developed states and emerging markets respectively,… [Read more]
On this week’s Business Monitor Podcast we are joined by Lisa Lewin, Head of Africa Analysis, to hear about her ‘on the ground’ impressions after returning from a trip to Kenya. A burgeoning middle class and growing trade integration among East African nations suggest that several sectors stand to benefit from the highly attractive economic… [Read more]
